by Peter A. Arthur-Smith, Leadership Solutions, Inc.®

” History doesn’t so much repeat itself but rhyme.” Mark Twain

“History is best used to frame possibilities, not to identify precise analogies to guide us.” Richard Neustadt and Ernest May in book, ‘Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Making.’

Decision-making is such a critical and challenging skill that we have experimented with many different approaches, in search of a fail-proof method, over the centuries. One clear highly common option is to utilize historical examples to help make the decision for us: attributed by one recent author to “lazy brains.” However, as indicated by the above quotes, it’s also an approach that can lead us astray without due thought; even though there are lessons to be learned from the past.

One area where we notice history being rampantly used is in the sports field. Almost every day we have some major sports event, be that football, basketball, soccer, hockey or golf, where we have sports journalists bombarding us with historical statistics to forecast

the outcome: and yet they so often get it wrong. Of course, we shouldn’t overlook the fact that journalists are basically historians. They record what happened yesterday. So it’s hardly surprising that when required to predict the outcome of any game, they resort to history. And yet, there’s no scientific basis to tie historical results to future results. Must be tough to be a sports journalist?

Those journalists make a living out of becoming an expert in a chosen sport. Many of us don’t always have the luxury of that expertise in our diverse worlds. However, we, like these experts, fall into the trap of resorting to history to ease our decision-making approach – even though circumstances may well have changed considerably in the mean time. We love to read stories about famous leaders and project how we could benefit from such leaders today. Possibly we could, although the chances are that the skills they possessed during their world-time may well not work in today’s world. Perhaps we find it easier to review the past – with its now known dimensions – rather than speculate about the future with its unknown dimensions.

One way this author has discovered to pull us away from this mode of decision-making is to use a technique called Option Solving (OS). OS has one big advantage, in that it compels us to make much greater use of our intuitive judgment. Surprising to most people is that out intuitive mind virtually makes all our decisions. We generally believe that by studying and analyzing a particular situation, we’re able to make clear choices: even though, once we’ve completed our analysis, it’s our intuitive rather than our rational mind that decides upon our conclusions.

Even more surprising; experiments have shown over the years that our rational mind cannot distinguish between truth and fiction, black and white, or fast and slow. It’s our intuitive capabilities that enable us to make these distinctions. If we can accept the truth about these realizations, then we need an approach which draws upon our innate capability. This is where option solving comes into its own.

OS helps our intuitive mind do its job because:

» It does find the rhymes between our past experiences and future options, as well as it helps us frame possibilities from which we can make judgment calls. Our phenomenal intuitive mind has pretty much recorded everything we have witnessed in our lives, so can call upon that data base to search for similarities – or rhymes or possibilities.

 » It lays out our decision options in the form of a pictogram. Our intuitive mind loves interpreting pictures, which is why we’re fond of the truism – a picture says a thousand words. It interprets pictures at speeds you won’t believe.

      » The technique challenges us to surface at least five options, whereas with conventional decision-making we work hard to reduce it to two – either-or – to make it as simple as possible. In some cases it may be that simple. Consider Warriors’ basketball coach, Steve Kerr, making a decision on whether to play Kevin Durant in game 6 of this season’s NBA national championships after a disastrous Achilles tendon injury. It’s a no brainer: yes or no. However, every time we get our decision down to two choices, it increases the chances that we’ll be 50% wrong.

              Even so, more often than not, we’re faced with much more complex choices than this, because there could be several options. On so many occasions you have to train yourself to find them. This is where that famous word “creativity” comes into play, and that’s where the OS technique can help. It’s like a medical doctor who wishes to retire from his practice. OS will not only help him come up with at least five options, otherwise he’ll not making full use of the technique, but it will also help him frame the decision-question; including his key decision considerations. By coming up with five realistic options, he reduces his decision error to no more than 20%. He may find himself with options such as:

 » Allow another group practice to purchase it.

              » Permit a professional team to buy into it as an investment and build other practices around it.

» Encourage a medical family to purchase it to extend the family practice.

              » Decide not to sell immediately until a better offer comes along.

              » Entice two up-and-comers to work at the practice for a year and then buy him out.

These options are bound by the question – ‘What is my best practice retirement option: considering 1) I wish to retire at the first reasonable opportunity, 2) I’ll be happy to continue in a part-time capacity during any transition, 3) I want to realize the full value of my practice, and 4) To assure my staff that it will go into the right hands?’

With this second decision scenario, it’s much more indicative of key business or operational decisions. By laying out your options in a pictogram form – review www.optionsolving.com – you can now allow your intuitive capabilities to take a more holistic view and make an optimum judgment call. The sweat is in putting the question together and coming up with realistic options. By then walking away from your pictogram for a couple of hours, or later that day, or first thing when you wake up the following morning; your intuitive mind will be ready to make the call. When it does, if you renege on that call, it will be at your peril. No matter how inconvenient or awkward that chosen option might seem, don’t second guess your intuition. It’s not right all the time, although it generally puts the odds on your side…with a little thought.

Using a tool like OS, you are equipped to make any number of important business decisions. It moves you beyond the conventional analytical methods or ad hoc, on-the-fly decision approaches. It’ll draw upon your natural decision-making capabilities. Learn more from the www.optionsolving.com website. No passwords or memberships necessary and then pass the word along to friends and associates.  

To learn more about envisioning and decision-clarity, talk with: